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Conf-Gen: Conformal Uncertainty Quantification for Generative Models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Conformal prediction (CP) and its extension, conformal risk control (CRC), are established frameworks for quantifying uncertainty in supervised machine learning through formal guarantees. However, recent breakthroughs in artificial intelligence (AI) have been driven by unsupervised generative models, such as large language models (LLMs) and image generators, which are not directly compatible with CP or CRC. In this work we introduce conformal generation (Conf-Gen), a general framework adapting CRC to generative tasks while relaxing its theoretical assumptions. Conf-Gen unifies and generalizes previous attempts to apply CP to LLMs, and extends conformal methodology to entirely new domains. We demonstrate the flexibility of Conf-Gen through some novel applications, including obtaining conformal guarantees on: image generators producing non-memorized images, conversational AI systems having asked enough clarifying questions, and the output of AI agents being correct.


On Language Generation in the Limit with Bounded Memory

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study language generation in the limit under bounded memory. In this task, a learner observes examples from an unknown target language one at a time and must eventually output only new valid examples. Prior work assumes access to the entire history, a strong assumption since realistic algorithms retain limited past information. Classical work in learning theory shows memory constraints dramatically alter learnability; we extend this to language generation. First, we study memoryless generators. Under a mild enumeration restriction, every countable collection of infinite languages remains generable without memory. Without this restriction, we exactly characterize when memoryless generation is possible. For finite collections, we characterize the optimal minimax density achievable by memoryless generators -- the best density guaranteed against any collection of a given size. This combinatorial bound relies on Sperner's theorem and symmetric chain decompositions. We further show that a sliding window of the last $W$ examples does not improve this worst-case density, whereas allowing it to store $b$ adaptively chosen past examples improves the achievable density for every $b \geq 1$. Finally, we revisit identification in the limit, where the learner must converge to a single correct hypothesis for the target language. We focus on its incremental variant, where the learner remembers only its previous guess. Here, although exact identification fails on a collection of just three languages, a mild relaxation requiring convergence to an ``approximate'' version of the target is achievable for every finite collection. These results show bounded memory affects these tasks differently: generation remains achievable for every countable collection, while density and identification are confined to finite collections, with guarantees weakening as the collection grows.


On the Regularity and Generalization of One-Step Wasserstein-guided Generative Models for PDE-Induced Measures

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Despite the remarkable empirical success of generative models, the available theory on their statistical accuracy in scientific computing remains largely pessimistic. This paper develops a theoretical framework for understanding the regularity of transport maps and the generalization properties of one-step Wasserstein-guided generative models for PDE-induced probability measures. We consider normalized target densities associated with linear elliptic and parabolic equations on bounded domains, as well as diffusion and Fokker--Planck equations on the torus. Under standard structural assumptions, we prove that these target measures satisfy doubling conditions. By combining this fact with regularity theory for optimal transport between doubling measures, we show that the optimal transport map from a uniform source measure to the target measure is Hölder continuous. This regularity yields an approximation-theoretic justification for one-step generative models that learn PDE-induced distributions via a single pushforward map. As a representative instance, we study DeepParticle and derive excess-risk bounds characterizing the discrepancy between the learned map and the population-optimal map. We also establish a robustness estimate under target shift and illustrate the theory with experiments which support the derived rates.


Causal Bias Detection in Generative Artificial Intelligence

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Automated systems built on artificial intelligence (AI) are increasingly deployed across high-stakes domains, raising critical concerns about fairness and the perpetuation of demographic disparities that exist in the world. In this context, causal inference provides a principled framework for reasoning about fairness, as it links observed disparities to underlying mechanisms and aligns naturally with human intuition and legal notions of discrimination. Prior work on causal fairness primarily focuses on the standard machine learning setting, where a decision-maker constructs a single predictive mechanism $f_{\widehat Y}$ for an outcome variable $Y$, while inheriting the causal mechanisms of all other covariates from the real world. The generative AI setting, however, is markedly more complex: generative models can sample from arbitrary conditionals over any set of variables, implicitly constructing their own beliefs about all causal mechanisms rather than learning a single predictive function. This fundamental difference requires new developments in causal fairness methodology. We formalize the problem of causal fairness in generative AI and unify it with the standard ML setting under a common theoretical framework. We then derive new causal decomposition results that enable granular quantification of fairness impacts along both (a) different causal pathways and (b) the replacement of real-world mechanisms by the generative model's mechanisms. We establish identification conditions and introduce efficient estimators for causal quantities of interest, and demonstrate the value of our methodology by analyzing race and gender bias in large language models across different datasets.


Intrinsic Wasserstein Rates for Score-Based Generative Models on Smooth Manifolds

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Score-based generative models are trained in high-dimensional ambient spaces, yet many data distributions are supported on low-dimensional nonlinear structures. We prove that, for compact $d$-dimensional smooth manifolds $\mathcal{M} \subset [0,1]^D$ with $d > 2$ and $β$-Hölder densities strictly positive on $\mathcal{M}$, a variance-preserving SGM estimator attains the intrinsic Wasserstein--1 sample exponent $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(D^{\mathcal{O}_β(d)}n^{-(β+1)/(d+2β)})$, up to logarithmic factors and explicit geometry and density factors. The full nonasymptotic bound explicitly isolates the finite-order geometry envelope, Hölder radius, density lower bound, ambient dependence, and finite-order correction terms. The analysis separates score approximation into a large-noise tangent-cell regime and a small-noise projection-centered, de-Gaussianized Laplace regime. The key technical ingredient is a ReLU implementation of nearest-projection coordinates via finite intrinsic anchors and Gauss--Newton iterations, rather than approximating the manifold projection as a black-box high-dimensional smooth map. Consequently, for families with polynomially controlled geometry and density lower bounds, the constructed score-network parameters have polynomial ambient dependence.


Netflix wants to use generative AI to make animated shorts

Engadget

Hollywood may have some conflicted feelings about the use of AI for content creation, but Netflix seems ready to jump in the deep end. According to, the streaming service has launched a new studio called INKubator that will specialize in creating generative AI content. Based on the current job listings for the team, it appears this studio will be creating short-form animated content that centers gen-AI workflows and tools. Considering INKubator is still hiring pretty key roles like a head of technology, it may be a while before viewers see anything the group produces. To start, the team's goal appears to be making animated shorts and specials, but there are suggestions that Netflix has greater ambitions for INK.


Spherical Flows for Sampling Categorical Data

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study the problem of learning generative models for discrete sequences in a continuous embedding space. Whereas prior approaches typically operate in Euclidean space or on the probability simplex, we instead work on the sphere $\mathbb S^{d-1}$. There the von Mises-Fisher (vMF) distribution induces a natural noise process and admits a closed-form conditional score. The conditional velocity is in general intractable. Exploiting the radial symmetry of the vMF density we reduce the continuity equation on $\mathbb S^{d-1}$ to a scalar ODE in the cosine similarity, whose unique bounded solution determines the velocity. The marginal velocity and marginal score on $(\mathbb S^{d-1})^L$ both decompose into posterior-weighted tangent sums that differ only by per-token scalar weights. This gives access to both ODE and predictor-corrector (PC) sampling. The posterior is the only learned object, trained by a cross-entropy loss. Experiments compare the vMF path against geodesic and Euclidean alternatives. The combination of vMF and PC sampling significantly improves results on Sudoku and language modeling.


The two clocks and the innovation window: When and how generative models learn rules

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Generative models trained on finite data face a fundamental tension: their score-matching or next-token objective converges to the empirical training distribution rather than the population distribution we seek to learn. Using rule-valid synthetic tasks, we trace this tension across two training timescales: $τ_{\mathrm{rule}}$, the step at which generations first become rule-valid, and $τ_{\mathrm{mem}}$, the step at which models begin reproducing training samples. Focusing on parity and extending to other binary rules and combinatorial puzzles, we characterize how these two clocks, $τ_{\mathrm{rule}}$ and $τ_{\mathrm{mem}}$, depend on key aspects of the learning setup. Specifically, we show that $τ_{\mathrm{rule}}$ increases with rule complexity and decreases with model capacity, while $τ_{\mathrm{mem}}$ is approximately invariant to the rule and scales nearly linearly with dataset size $N$. We define the \emph{innovation window} as the interval $[τ_{\mathrm{rule}}, τ_{\mathrm{mem}}]$. This window widens with increasing $N$ and narrows with rule complexity, and may vanish entirely when $τ_{\mathrm{rule}} \geq τ_{\mathrm{mem}}$. The same two-clock structure arises in both diffusion (DiT) and autoregressive (GPT) models, with architecture-dependent offsets. Dissecting the learned score of DiT models reveals a corresponding evolution of the optimization landscapes, where rule-valid samples' basins expand substantially around $τ_{\mathrm{rule}}$, while training samples' basins begin to dominate around $τ_{\mathrm{mem}}$. Together, these results yield a unified and predictive account of when and how generative models exhibit genuine innovation.


Mean-Field Path-Integral Diffusion: From Samples to Interacting Agents

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Independent sample generation is the prevailing paradigm in modern diffusion-based generative models of AI. We ask a different question: can samples coordinate through shared population statistics to transport probability mass more efficiently? We introduce Mean-Field Path-Integral Diffusion (MF-PID), a framework in which samples are promoted to interacting agents whose drift depends self-consistently on the evolving population density. We identify two analytically tractable regimes: a Linear-Quadratic-Gaussian (LQG) benchmark in which the infinite-dimensional mean-field system reduces to a finite set of Riccati and linear ODEs, and a Gaussian-mixture regime governed by a piecewise-constant protocol that preserves closed-form solvability. For a quadratic interaction potential with schedule βt and zero base drift we prove that the self-consistent MF guidance is the exact linear interpolant between initial and target global means -- a result that holds for arbitrary initial and target densities and any βt. Applied to demand-response control of energy systems, where agents aggregated into an ensemble are energy consumers (e.g. The energy saving is independent of the number of zones per building (d = 1-32 tested), confirming that the linear guidance formula broadcasts a single d-vector with O(d) communication and grows mildly in compute (sub-cubically for d 32, asymptotically O(d3) for d 1). Introduction Generative AI has been transformed by diffusion models, which frame sample generation as a stochastic process steered from noise to data [1-3]. A key structural feature of these models -- shared with other generative models, e.g. Similarly, stochastic optimal transport (SOT) and Schrödinger bridge formulations [6-8] cast distribution matching as an independent-particle path optimization, yielding tractable convolutions of Green functions but discarding inter-particle information; stochastic interpolants [9] construct flexible transport bridges between arbitrary densities via tunable continuous-time stochastic processes, recovering the Schrödinger bridge as a special limit -- again in an independent-particle framework.